Forecasting Using Consistent Experts

"Some Problems of Selecting Delphi Experts for Educational Planning and Forecasting

[//129]Abstract Two major problems in selecting experts for the Delphi Technique in cost sensitive educational forecasting are considered: 1. Differentiation between levels of expertise; 2. The relevance of experts in forecasting areas where the subject matter is cultural values rather than technology. It is hypothesized that where values comprise the forecast subject matter there will be no si...

Prediction with Advice of Unknown Number of Experts

In the framework of prediction with expert advice, we consider a recently introduced kind of regret bounds: the bounds that depend on the effective instead of nominal number of experts. In contrast to the NormalHedge bound, which mainly depends on the effective number of experts but also weakly depends on the nominal one, we obtain a bound that does not contain the nominal number of experts at ...

Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting

Judgmental bootstrapping is a type of expert system. It translates an experts' rules into a quantitative model by regressing the experts' forecasts against the information that he used. Bootstrapping models apply an experts' rules consistently, and many studies have shown that decisions and predictions from bootstrapping models are similar to those from the experts. Three studies showed that bo...

MEDEX: A Fuzzy System for Forecasting Mediterranean Gale Force Winds

This paper presents an implementation of a fuzzy rule-based system for predicting the onset and cessation of seven gale-force winds in the Mediterranean region. The rules were compiled by several meteorological experts, and implemented using a commercial software package. Signiicant issues included the speciication of loosely deened variables, and the treatment of the system user's uncertainty ...

Forecasting Electricity Demand Using Non-linear Mixture of Experts